An encouraging unemployment application report yesterday was cause for optimism as the four-week average for initial unemployment claims dropped to the lowest since November 2007, economists said.
The four-week average, seen as a more accurate number because it adjusts for week-to-week fluctuations, dropped 6,250 to 335,500 per week even though applications rose by 5,000 last week.
"It's obviously good news," said Elliot Winer, chief economist for the Northeast Economic Analysis Group.
"Ultimately I hope that would help us drop the unemployment rate."
Nigel Gault, co-chief economist for the Parthenon Group, said, "The suggestion from what's happening with the claims is very likely an improvement in job creation and we might see the July number get revised up."
Winer said it is hard to tell if the increase in the past week will be part of a trend or just a blip in the numbers.
"Hopefully the one-week spike isn't the end of the drop," Winer said.
Even if the next unemployment numbers improve, the types of jobs created will be significant.
Many of the jobs added in July were low-paying positions in retail and food services.
The positive numbers also could figure into the Federal Reserve's critical decision on whether to start tapering off its $85 billion bond-buying program in September.
"If they taper, they'll be doing it on the basis that the labor market is doing OK," Gault said.
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